Plan B Blog Quotes

"I'm talking about an ice-nine event that radically and almost spontaneously alters our upward trajectory of standard-of-living."
(take me to that blog)

"We are overly dependent on frail things."
(take me to that blog)
Showing posts with label off the grid. Show all posts
Showing posts with label off the grid. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Cash Is King! (in what kingdom?)

Young, adventurous, and undisciplined - yeah, life as twenty-something dinks was a blast. We traveled extensively and when we weren't air-borne, we were antiquing or sailing. We knew it couldn't last and, in our economic self-awareness, we always said the sailboat
would be the last thing to go. It was. It went. Boys and bills and non-exponentially increasing income cut a swath through our bright prospects. Through our 30s and 40s, we were chopping wood and trying to get right side up on mortgages, car payments, yada, yada, yada. Now that the light at the end of the tunnel is getting a little brighter, I'm trying to look forward at what an off-the-grid economy is going to look like.

First of all, all my Plan B investing and preparations are going to be cash. Although, I guess I could be talked out of that... if the grid goes down and we are all swept into survival mode instantaneously, I don't think having an unpaid loan at the bank is going to be the thing I wake up in the morning thinking about. I'll have to stew on that one some more.

The real thing that I'm curious about is currency and media of exchange in the post-apocalypse. A friend has got me buying silver which sounds good. As things deteriorate in the world economy (as they are now, in 2009), precious metal stocks are going up. So, I've got a good hedge working for me pre-apocalypse. But I'm wondering what happens when we round the corner into "the brave new world". What will have value then? Who will need and want gold? If I have $10,000 in silver coins, what value will they have to my neighbor who, like me, is living off the land and is raising chickens and corn? It may be that my ability to carve oak bowls or plows will have more value to him than my shiny metal disks.


Are there other commodities that would have greater value than precious metals in the post-apoc world? Would seeds have higher value? Tools? Books? Heck, if I'm going to suddenly take up this agrarian survivalist lifestyle, there's more than a few things I'm going to need to learn and quickly. Maybe I need to subscribe to Mother Earth News and The Old Farmer's Almanac so I have something that tells me what to do. I reckon if I could travel the country-side showing survivors how to build water mills, I could build myself a pretty cushy lifestyle... just like I did when I was twenty-something.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Thought Process

I love the idea of an actual "thought process". Fortunately, none of us are actually wired to think linearly though a "process" of facts and alternative responses. We're all scrambled eggs in the pan no, more like a western omelet . What comes out of "the process" is an amalgam of good and bad information, good and bad assessment, good and bad decisions for action.

If like is an omelet, I'm still chopping veggies. I'm in the process as evaluating what my real forward-looking concerns are and trying to formulate reasonable responses. If I were to summarize the few salient points of Magnum Opus (Part 1.a), I would suggest the following.

1) Life on earth is not moving in a sustainable trajectory. Our dependence on oil (foreign or domestic) is not tenable. Life in the USofA in the 20th/21st Centuries is entirely based on cheap, available oil. Ain't gonna continue.

2) When the grid (energy / economy / government) goes down, it's going to be "everyman for himself". This will happen in a a matter of hours, not days, weeks, months, years. We should wish.

3) When you need a
Plan B, it will be too late to develop it. Anarchy will sweep the nation (world?) and only those who have a working plan in place will survive.

4) Plan B will work only if it is (basically) a Middle-Ages type solution in terms of energy in technology. We will have the benefit of preparing for
Plan B in a Plan A world, and we will have the advantage of centuries of discoveries at our disposal. But when you wake up in the morning, what will you eat?

With those four points in mind, I am trying to cook up an omelet here that will guide me in developing
Plan B now, so I'm am ready when I need it. If I do it right, I'll also have some fun in the process and a darn nice recreation spot for the grandkids.

Magnum Opus (Part 1.a)

We have screwed everything up. I'm no UnaBomber, but this is my little manifesto, a microfesto. The Industrial Revolution (IR) ruined humanity. With prodigious production came prodigious consumption. With production and consumption came, I don't want to call it. Greed? Let's say "self-centeredness". The IR ushered in the growth of cities beyond what was reasonably sustainable without government-organized infrastructure (...and don't get me started on bureaucracy) and an over-arching demand on resources. Cities became centers of commerce (if only to sustain themselves as cities) and the basic human need of community was annihilated. By community, I mean the interdependence and cohesion and shared value of people. And along the way, we destroyed any real concept of commerce. Today, it's a shell game, a computer simulation, The SIMS with flesh and bones. There is absolutely no connection, other than theoretical, between the way I make my money and the way I provide my family food, shelter, and housing. It's all bartered out of relevance. Pretend.

When the Doomsday Scenario unfolds, either by regional EMP or slow death by petro-starvation, we're all dead in the water. The first wave will shred the veil of “civilization”. The most vicious vandals will plunder every retail outlet – stripping the shelves of all life-necessities as well as all the “luxuries” of life that will never do them any good in a post-apocalyptic world. There'll be nothing left to eat in the stores; we’ll only have what’s in our kitchen pantry. The grid will go down and our houses will be useless boxes providing nothing more than shelter from the rain. We won't be able to cook, heat, cool, launder, bathe or anything of the sort. Gangs will roam the streets attacking the weak-minded, unprepared, and unarmed. God help you if you have a generator (which I do). In the stone-deaf silence of post-world, the sound of a generator running will cry out louder than a sorority girl whining “I’m so drunk”. There’s going to be trouble.

I think the vast majority of city-dwelling humans are only 72 hours away from mass anarchy and hysteria at the end of which the only solution will be to walk to the countryside and beg or fight for the raw resources that we used to pay for with paper (pretend) money. With no skills and no training and no resolve to do the hard work of subsistence, bank tellers and software engineers will discover the real value of an hourly wage - an hour's work.

In the end, we will forge a Nahalal (please view the image of this town) – one of many Israeli “moshavim”, capitalist collectives designed to create community and interdependence.

In a generation or two, after death and destruction of biblical proportion, we'll settle back into our little, self-sustaining villages. The only power sources are humans and animals (maybe real old-fashion wind and water engines) and the only raw resources are water, dirt, and seeds. Our human ingenuity and unchecked desire will have wrought on own near-extermination. But we will survive. And at the end of a hard week, we'll gather in the town square and the carpenter will receive his chickens in trade for the plow he made and he'll tell a few jokes and lighten the pain of our sore backs. And we'll see the grandkids playing with their cousins. And some new mom will publicly thank the old widow who helped deliver her baby. And I'll trade you an oak basket for a pair of leather gloves. And we'll all pray for rain. I swear to you, we will all pray for rain.

The population explosion of the 20th Century is a direct result of the Industrial Revolution and a happy result insofar as health conditions and total health improved. That is one of the ironies of the IR syndrome. Man's quest to live "better" (e.g. free from disease, free from debilitating pain, free from harm, war, pestilence, Britney Spears, etc) never ends. Once free of those basic miseries, other lesser inconveniences became the target of our ingenuity. We desire liberation from Summer's heat, Winter's cold, Spring's rain, and Autumn's leaf raking (off our pretend pastures) so we invent Home Depot and charge it with the responsibility of reserving some of the soft money we give it so they can sponsor a NASCAR driver who we can watch alone on Sunday on TV in our cool, clean, well appointed home instead of going to the town square and watching 3 year-olds race each other in the grassy park (again, see Nahalal).

The IR set man free from many of the onerous burdens of manual labor. Along with the high pressure, hyper-productivity of modern life, there is now also an epidemic of leisure. The epidemic has many victims. We are not physically healthy – we’re careening toward universal obesity. Perhaps worse than that is the portion of the global (especially US/Western) economy that is dependent on leisure – not doing anything productive. The entertainment sector, the food/restaurant/beverage sector, the home décor sector, the sport/recreation/leisure sector (spectator and participant), the travel sector, and on and on; these huge components of our economy all developed around the superfluousness of disposable time and money. How fragile is an economy that is so heavily dependent on the fact that people are NOT working very much? Add to that the proliferation of service sectors (I’ll wash your shirts if you change my oil) and bureaucracy (public and private) and we discover that our economies are towers of Jenga blocks, precariously teetering with no visible means of support. When man’s basic needs are food, clothing, and shelter and very little of our economy (or personal expenditures) are devoted to that, our economic health must necessarily be in dire peril. When the bubble bursts, the debris of an economy no more substantial than butterfly wings will astound all. Think Detroit without GM and Ford and no public infrastructure to maintain the pretense of civility. There’ll be financial carnage that will make the Great Depression look like a two year-old’s temper tantrum.

Add to that, the “virtual” nature of our monetary system… I recently calculated that I actually only handle little more than 1% of my total income as live money. I never carry cash or coin. My pay is automatically deposited and most of my disbursements are electronically processed. If the grid goes down, what am I going to take to WalMart to trade for some milk and bread (assuming there was anything left to actually trade for)? A regional natural disaster, a screwdriver left in the wrong place at a power plant, a well-place terrorist attack, or any other variety of calamity would wreak havoc beyond our ability to comprehend, let alone cope.

What can a person do to endure such a calamity? I am taking precautions (stored water, a bit of hard currency, a pathetically wimpish .22 calibre Derringer) to survive the acute phase of the crisis, but I doubt it’s anywhere near enough. I really don’t think city dwellers have any capacity to deal with more than two or three days of a real crisis. After that, we’ll see a reversal of the rural exodus of the last century. The highways will be choked with the smart people who figure out that food doesn’t grow on bike paths. We’ll head back to the farms that we’ve despised for a hundred years and make an inept plea for the hard working descendants of European immigrants to have mercy on us, to take us in, board us and feed us… in return for a day’s labor.

That’s a possible, perhaps likely response to the coming calamity, but is there a better solution?

I've got no clue. Sociology is at once the worst "science" and also the most important field of study we may have. The same human nature that compels us to connect with one another also seems to drive us toward lesser ends. Consumption, Conformity, and Competition are the gravitational forces that drive society "forward". Cataclysm is the only corrective tool Nature seems to have in her quiver and it is a soon-coming cataclysm that I fear.

It would be nice if we could all come to our senses on our own. The Quakers and the Shakers carved out niches of their own – simplistic, self-reliant communities. But their cultures were so obtuse that now the only influence they have is on the tourism economies of regions that surround their compounds. [My gosh, can there be a greater irony - the very thing that drove them to live apart is now a gawking spectacle among those that refuse to live apart? Plus, nearby you can by handmade fudge for $5.95 a pound.] I wonder if there will ever be a movement of people who see the end coming (socio-economically, not spiritually)? (and yes, there is such a movement, I don't mean to dimiss them just to make my point.) Are we contaminated with such hubris that we think we will forever progress along this ever thinning single rail of “prosperity”?

I’m thankful for everything the Industrial Revolution has brought me: a luxurious car, an allergen-free pillow, no-iron slacks, a cure for erectile dysfunction, crustless bread, Rogaine, hybridized corn, tall buildings, neon signs, hip-hop, bronze tombstones, the Olympics, water-flushing toilets, credit-card sized calculators, and 10mbps wifi internet downloads. Life is so sweet. I’m scared to death of doing without any of it… and I am sure scared of living with it.


a quick summary...