Last night, son #1 and son #4 accompanied me on a trip to Bass Pro where we picked up a Gerber Gator Machete and a handful of other survival gear. I guess the glib conversation of impending apocalypse (aka: SHTF) caught 13 year-old #4's attention. "So", he asked, "do you really think something is going to happen?" It gave me pause. Do I really think something is going to happen or am I just scare/fear mongering (I'm not sure which)?Yes, I think something is going to happen. How confident am I? Well, let's put this in terms of probability. Here's the quantification of my paranoia. I believe, in the next five years, we stand the following percentage-of-risk of a life-changing calamity.
40% probability of a major national SHTF by means of a foreign aggressor
30% probability of a major continental SHTF by means of a natural force
20% probability of a major national SHTF by means of internal disturbance of the force
Foreign Aggressor: America's newest Vice President has guaranteed that our brash, young President with "a spine of steel" will be "tested". Problem: it's not "the mettle of this guy" that is going to be attacked - it is America itself. Over the weekend, North Korea "tested the mettle" of their long-range rocket. The Mettle-Guy-In-Chief responded as everyone knew he would and exactly #1 son responded to a perceived threat in his toddlerhood: "I am very mad with you." Whoopteedangdoo. Now what? As promised by his campaign, Obama has demonstrated that a defensive America is de classe and not at all what the French are looking for and we, by golly, are tired of disappointing the French. Saying America is arrogant and shan't be that way going forward plays well in Europe, but there are governments and loose associations of billionaires that are happy to have His Timidness cutting defense spending. Me, I'm with JoeB. We are (40%) likely to get hit and hit hard. Obama already has a Plan B waiting for him. I'm trying to put mine in order... one machete at a time.
Natural Force: There are very few natural forces that have the power of disrupting the entirety of America's grid / supply chain. There are only two I can think of: a continent-breaking earthquake or a mega-volcano. Throw in the possibility a couple extra-terrestrial calamities, solar-flares or asteroid impact, and you have a pretty good menu of Things-That-Are-Not-Obama's-Fault. My 30% assessment is purely random. It's really just half-way between a foreign-caused calamity and a domestic one - let's give God a shot destroying us before (or after) we give ourselves a chance at destroying us. (We could also throw into this category the most calamity-prone natural force: human error. It would not surprise me at all to learn that America's grid / supply chain hangs in the balance, at risk of debilitation by some idiot who got "lefty-loosey / righty-tighty" confused - if only for a second. Anyone ever heard of Mrs. O'Leary's cow?)
Disturbance of the Force: Students of history will tell you that America is ripe for domestic upheaval. Nazi Germany started in ways that are eerily similar to the last couple of years in America. Specifically we are seeing a consolidation of federal power in the face of social change and unsettledness. We have a president who has declared martial law over private enterprise (among so many other victims of his martial law) and seems, at this writing, in no way content to limit his grasp over the socio-economic landscape of America. As unrest deepens over taxation, freedom, constitutional rights, etc, we will see a more vocal, engaged populace. Dissent has never been amusing to megalomaniacs or totalitarians, I doubt it will pass without repercussion this time around. I put the risk of this category at 20% because until "The One" (let the reader understand) get's his red, white, and brown shirt corps in order, I don't think the American military will ever turn on Americans. But, I am leaving that possibility open - have to make room for the unexpected.
The preceding three categories of SHTF are intended to be broad summaries of potential threat. I like to soothe myself with a little bedtime reading of SSR's near-comprehensive list of potential TEOTWAWKI events.
a quick summary...
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